MACRO LIQUIDITY INDEX
57
/ 100
🟡 NEUTRAL
Mixed signals. Be selective, favor quality over speculation.
Updated Jul 28, 2026 01:24 AM
Fed Liquidity
LEANING EASY
Liquidity Score
65/100
Fed Balance Sheet (3m)
+0.7%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Rate Change (3m)
-1.0%
Reverse Repo (3m)
+84.7%
M2 Money Supply (YoY)
+5.4%
Druckenmiller P0: "It's always, always, always about the Fed."
Credit Reflexivity
CREDIT EASING
Credit Score
58/100
HY Spread (current)
3 bps
HY Spread (3m chg)
-1.1%
Consumer Credit (6m)
+1.0%
BBB Spread (3m chg)
-2.0%
Soros P0: Rising collateral → more lending → reflexive boom. Reverse = bust.
Dollar · Oil · Rates
HEADWIND BUILDING
Dollar (DXY 3m)
↑ RISING
(+3.0%)
Crude Oil (WTI 3m)
↓ FALLING
(-15.2%)
10yr Yield (TNX 3m)
↑ RISING
(+7.0%)
2 of 3 macro indicators rising, headwind building
Druckenmiller D3: "All three up = bad for equities."
Leading Indicators
BROAD EXPANSION
S&P 500 (SPY 3m)
+3.6%
Housing (XHB 3m)
+0.9%
Retail (XRT 3m)
+5.3%
Transports (IYT 3m)
+7.0%
Leading sectors confirming market uptrend, healthy breadth
Druckenmiller D5: Housing, Retail, Transports lead the cycle by 6-12 months.
Credit Velocity
DECELERATING
Consumer Credit (3m)
-0.0%
Consumer Credit (6m)
+1.0%
Biz Loans (3m)
+1.2%
Credit 2nd Derivative
-0.5%
Credit growth decelerating, Soros Ch4: total lending still rising but net new lending declining. Pre-bust condition.
Soros Ch4: "Only net new lending stimulates. Total lending must keep rising."
What This Means
PLAYBOOK
Mixed conditions, be selective. Not all boats rise in this environment. Focus on quality: strong balance sheets, proven earnings power, wide moats. Avoid speculation.
Action: Analyze stocks with Dash but raise your quality bar. Favor Greenwald-style value over momentum plays.
"The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs... When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular.", Stanley Druckenmiller