Dash: Macro Dashboard

Macro liquidity index

43 out of 100

NEUTRAL

Mixed signals. Be selective, favor quality over speculation.

Updated Sep 12, 2026 08:07 AM

Fed Liquidity NEUTRAL

Liquidity Score 51/100

Fed Balance Sheet (3m) +0.2%

Fed Funds Rate 3.63%

Rate Change (3m) +1.0%

Reverse Repo (3m) +1057.5%

M2 Money Supply (YoY) +4.6%

Druckenmiller P0: "It's always, always, always about the Fed."

Credit Reflexivity CREDIT EASING

Credit Score 58/100

HY Spread (current) 3 bps

HY Spread (3m chg) -0.4%

Consumer Credit (6m) +1.1%

BBB Spread (3m chg) +5.4%

Soros P0: rising collateral leads to more lending, a reflexive boom. In reverse, a bust.

Dollar, Oil, Rates HEADWIND BUILDING

Dollar (DXY 3m) → FLAT (-0.6%)

Crude Oil (WTI 3m) ↑ RISING (+17.9%)

10yr Yield (TNX 3m) ↑ RISING (+10.9%)

2 of 3 macro indicators rising, headwind building

Druckenmiller D3: "All three up = bad for equities."

Leading Indicators LATE CYCLE WARNING

S&P 500 (SPY 3m) +3.3%

Homebuilders (XHB 3m) -8.4%

Retail (XRT 3m) -3.1%

Transports (IYT 3m) -4.9%

Housing, Retail, Transports all declining while SPY up, late cycle divergence

Druckenmiller D5: housing, retail and transports lead the cycle by 6 to 12 months.

Credit Velocity DECELERATING

Consumer Credit (3m) +0.3%

Consumer Credit (6m) +1.1%

Biz Loans (3m) +1.4%

Credit 2nd Derivative -0.2%

Credit growth decelerating, Soros Ch4: total lending still rising but net new lending declining. Pre-bust condition.

Soros Ch4: "Only net new lending stimulates. Total lending must keep rising."

What this means Playbook

Mixed conditions, be selective. Not all boats rise in this environment. Focus on quality: strong balance sheets, proven earnings power, wide moats. Avoid speculation.

What to do: run stocks through Dash but raise your quality bar. Favour Greenwald-style value over momentum plays.

Analyze a stock

"The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs... When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular."

Stanley Druckenmiller