01
What it's worth
Every method, one scale, $0 to $3,000
American Express Company has modest 7% upside with A-grade earnings.
5 ways of valuing American Express land between $151.76 and $2,400. Our number, $360.36, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$360.36+7% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$375.96+11%
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what American Express would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 55% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02
The business
What the quality readings say
On quality, American Express reads strongest through the growth lens at 90 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital12.3%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score90
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load1.85×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.05×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. Wall Street's $375.96 assumes the current growth rate keeps compounding. Every dollar of the 55% of the price that sits above the floor rests on that continuing. Nothing in the readings above says it will not; they say whether the company is capable of it.
03
What could go wrong
The case against buying today
The risk here is the balance sheet as much as the multiple. Leverage this size limits how much a bad year can be absorbed.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$214.94-36.4%
Our valuePrimary method
$360.36+6.6%
Same $0 to $3,000 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 36% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +7% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
You are paying for growth55% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
The balance sheet is leveredDebt to equity of 1.85x. Leverage that size turns a bad year into a solvency question.
Little margin for error on priceAt +7%, the stock is close to fair. There is no discount absorbing a bad quarter.
04
The committee
3 buy · 4 hold · 0 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
LaffontGrowth lens
Buy
Growth and margin together read 43, which is the level where this lens treats a business as exceptional.
90
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Buy
The chart confirms the story. Price is above its key averages and the trend is intact.
88
AckmanCatalyst lens
Buy
There is an identifiable driver here rather than a hope for a re-rating, which is what this lens wants to see.
87
CohenVs. peers lens
Hold
Against comparable companies this prices roughly in line.
68
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 1.85x and volatility of 1.05x the market.
65
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
60
GreenwaldValue lens
Hold
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $151.76 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
55