01
What it's worth
Every method, one scale, $0 to $100
NIKE, Inc. looks 54% undervalued with A-grade earnings.
6 ways of valuing NIKE land between $50.66 and $92.69. Our number, $59.50, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$59.50+54% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$50.66+31%
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price sits at or above today's price, which means the market is paying nothing for future growth. That is rare, and it is either an opportunity or a warning that the current profits are not expected to last.
02
The business
What the quality readings say
On quality, NIKE reads strongest through the value lens at 100 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital43.8%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score50
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0.03×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.12×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03
What could go wrong
The case against buying today
The risk here is mostly about price and timing, not about whether the business survives.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$21.22-45.0%
Our valuePrimary method
$59.50+54.2%
Same $0 to $100 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +54% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
The trend is against youTrend strength reads 0 out of 100. Price is under its key moving averages, and the momentum lens is the one that will not buy weakness.
Balance sheet is not the problemDebt to equity of 0.03x. Solvency is not a live risk in any scenario here.
04
The committee
1 buy · 5 hold · 1 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
GreenwaldValue lens
Buy
The floor price of $62.20 is at or above today's price, which is as close to a value case as this lens gets.
100
AckmanCatalyst lens
Hold
There is an identifiable driver here rather than a hope for a re-rating, which is what this lens wants to see.
71
CohenVs. peers lens
Hold
Against comparable companies this is not expensive on the multiples that matter for a business like this.
70
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0.03x and volatility of 1.12x the market.
60
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
58
LaffontGrowth lens
Hold
Growth and margin together read 11, respectable but not rare.
50
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Wait
The chart disagrees with the story. Price is below its key averages, and this lens does not buy weakness, however good the company is.
18