Dash: NVDA

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation · Technology · $4919.3B · High Growth

$203.09

Strong Opportunity

NVIDIA Corporation has modest 2% upside with A-grade earnings.

Fair Value

$206.62

ⓘ

Blended Fair Value Methodology

This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: $32.2B
Adjusted EBIT: $33.9B
WACC: 16.0%
Tax Rate: 15.1% (computed)
EPV/Share: $7.46
Margin of Safety: -2623%

Upside

+2%

Risk Level

Medium

Position Size

15.0%

CORE HOLDING (Score 82+)

Confidence Very High (88/100)

→ Consider buying at $203.09 with a 12-month hold.

6 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Laffont (100/100) · Watch: Cohen/Griffin (51/100)

✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →

✓CHART CONFIRMS(95/100), Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and vo

Is It a Good Price?

Near fair value · EQ Grade A

+2%

The stock appears to be trading near its estimated fair value of $206.62. Earnings quality is rated A, a strong sign.

INVESTMENT THESIS

NVDA is 2623% above EPV, pure growth/narrative bet. Grade A quality. At this premium, you need everything to go right. Position size should reflect speculation, not conviction.

Stage 2 reflexivity intact, momentum 9% with earnings accelerating. R/R of 1.1:1 needs better entry. Above 200MA, Druckenmiller baseline met. Wait for pullback to improve asymmetry.

Composite

/ 100

R/R Ratio

1.1x

BELOW THRESHOLD

Consensus

6/7 managers AGREE, high conviction

EQ Grade

8/10

Return Target

+49% / +120%

Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Subject trades at 145.9x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 8.3x, a 1658% premium, with 55% EBITDA margins vs 35% peer median, -0.1x net leverage (less levered than 1.0x peer median).

AI accelerator monopoly, semi comps chosen for GPU/ASIC overlap; note NVDA deserves premium to all peers

Premium / Discount vs Peers

CheaperPeer MedianRicher

EV/EBITDA

+1658%

EV/Revenue

+1522%

EV/FCF

+844%

Fwd P/E

-19%

Ticker	Rationale	Mkt Cap	EV/EBITDA TTM	EV/EBIT TTM	EV/Rev TTM	EV/FCF TTM	Fwd P/E FWD	EBITDA Mg TTM	Rev Gr. YoY	ND/EBITDA
AMD ✓	Direct: x86 CPU + GPU AI accelerator, closest	N/A	1.5x	N/A	0.2x	1.6x	37.4x	+11%	+20%	0.9x
AVGO ✓	Adjacent: custom ASICs for hyperscalers; netw	$1.8T	115.5x	N/A	43.9x	99.5x	19.5x	+38%	+24%	3.8x
MRVL ✓	Adjacent: data center networking semis; AI in	$174B	N/A	N/A	30.0x	161.2x	31.2x	N/A	+16%	N/A
QCOM ✓	Adjacent: edge/mobile AI; different end-marke	$179B	15.1x	N/A	4.9x	19.7x	15.5x	+33%	+7%	1.2x
TSM ~	Foundry note: upstream supplier, not direct c	$2.1T	1.0x	N/A	0.7x	4.2x	18.9x	+72%	+36%	0.3x
Peer Median		N/A	8.3x	N/A	4.9x	19.7x	19.5x	+35%	N/A	1.0x
Subject Company		N/A	145.9x	N/A	80.2x	186.3x	15.8x	+55%	N/A	-0.1x

Implied Price, Comps Football Field

EV/EBITDA

$12

EV/Revenue

$13

EV/FCF

$22

Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.

Yahoo Finance (unaudited)

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive

/ 100

Bubble Risk Detected

Unknown

Peer Reliability: Low

. ⚠ Extreme premium detected on 1+ multiples, potential overvaluation. 1 of 3 multiples below peer median across 5 peers.

EV/EBITDA +1658% premium

EV/Revenue +1522% premium

Fwd P/E -19% discount

Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.

What Could Go Right

Strong upside potential

+120%

✦ Best case: stock could reach $446.80 (+120%)

✦ Base case return of +49% over 12 months

✦ Trading above its long-term trend (bullish signal)

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Catalyst Density: HIGH (6 events)

Avg Impact: 7.2/10

📊

Earnings Report, 2026-08-26

EPS est direction: UP | Vol 47% = ±12% expected move

■■■■■■■■■■

10/10

🚀

Earnings Acceleration, 214% YoY

Druckenmiller trigger: accelerating earnings attract momentum flows

■■■■■■■■□□

8/10

📈

Revenue Inflection, 121% fwd growth

Forward revenue acceleration signals secular growth re-rating

■■■■■■■■□□

8/10

🎯

Analyst Re-Rating, 49% consensus upside

Target $302.31, potential for price target raises if execution continues

■■■■■■□□□□

6/10

🌊

Reflexivity Risk, High Beta + Vol

Beta 2.21× / Vol 47%, momentum reversal could cascade

■■■■■■□□□□

6/10

🤖

AI/Cloud Catalyst Window

Mega-cap tech: AI capex cycle, cloud migration, and platform shifts drive re-ratings

■■■■■□□□□□

5/10

Consensus Delta: 6/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

75/10

Buffett/Greenwald
Price 203.09 vs AV 6.72, apply A quality filter before committing capital.

60/10

Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.

60/10

Soros
Stage 2 reinforcement, trends are intact, consider adding.

93/10

Druckenmiller
Above 200MA, trend intact. Liquidity premium 0.87x.

82/10

Ackman
Target upside 48% with asymmetry 8.2/10 catalyst strength.

100/10

Laffont
Rule of 40: 111.3%, COMPOUNDING MACHINE.

63/10

Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 47.4% annualized, size accordingly. Beta 2.21x.

51/10

Peer Relative
Premium to peer group, growth priced in.

What Could Go Wrong

Manageable risks

-45%

Z-Score: 62.0 (Safe)

⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $111.70 (-45%)

⚠ High volatility, 2.2x more volatile than the market

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

Paying 2623% growth premium, entire thesis depends on future growth materialising.
Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.
High beta (2.21), will amplify any market drawdown.

Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)

Piotroski F-Score: Moderate

6/9, Financial Strength

✓ ROA positive

✓ Operating CF positive

✓ ROA above 3% threshold

✗ Cash flow ≤ Net Income

✓ Low leverage (D/E < 0.5)

✓ Cash covers >30% of debt

✗ Low insider ownership

✓ Gross margin > 30%

✗ Asset turnover ≤ 0.5x

61.96

Altman Z-Score: Safe Zone

Bankruptcy risk gauge

Z < 1.81

Distress

1.81-2.99

Grey Zone

Z > 2.99

Safe

The Market Backdrop

Stage 2 of 8: acceleration

Stage 2 of 8

The broader market appears to be in acceleration of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE

VALUE CYCLICAL

SECULAR GROWTH

GROWTH CYCLICAL

Growth Sensitivity →

Rate Sensitivity →

Quadrant

SECULAR GROWTH

Growth engine with low rate risk, ideal for sustained compounding

Growth Sens.

100/100

Rate Sens.

45/100

Soros Stage

2, Acceleration

Beta

2.21×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception

② Acceleration

③ Testing

④ Conviction

⑤ Twilight

⑥ Reversal

⑦ Crisis

⑧ Normalize

Loop Strength

55/100

Self-reinforcing uptrend, earnings confirm price, attracting more buyers

Loop Direction

POSITIVE

Stage: ② Acceleration

6M Mom: 9% · Earn Growth: 214%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts

① Early Easing

② Mid Easing

③ Transition

④ Tightening

Liquidity Cycle

MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops

Liquidity Score

85/100

EXPANDING

Fed Balance Sheet

+0.56% (3m)

3-month rate of change

Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

(-0.01% vs 3m ago)

M2 Supply

+5.1% YoY

Year-over-year growth

"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0

Credit Score

58/100

CREDIT EASING

HY Spread (OAS)

2.73%

Trend: -4.2% (3m)

Consumer Credit

+1.0% (6m)

6-month growth rate

BBB Spread

-3.0% (3m)

Collateral quality

Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength

80/100

POSITIVE REFLEXIVE LOOP CONFIRMED

Feedback Factors

• Price +9% & earnings +214%, positive loop ✓

• Revenue +68% confirming uptrend ✓

• Analyst EPS revisions UP with price, reflexive feedback ✓

• EPS acceleration 96% fwd, capital cycle ✓

• Margin expansion 52% with uptrend, operating leverage loop ✓

Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.

Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller

Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal

MIXED

DXY: FLAT (3.0%) Oil: FALLING (-8.0%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)

Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction

Druckenmiller Leading Indicators

MIXED

XHB: -2.9% XRT: 1.4% IYT: 7.4% SPY: 4.9%

Mixed signals from leading indicators

Soros Currency Reflexivity

RISING DOLLAR (DXY 3.0% 3mo)

DXY +3.0%, mild dollar headwind

Bessent 50/30/20 Attribution

Market (50%)

4.9%

SPY 3mo

Sector (30%)

13.7%

XLK

Alpha (20%)

-13.1%

Stock-specific

Tide: WITH TIDE

Chart & Technicals

✓ Chart confirms the thesis · Score 95/100

95/100

Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and volume all align.

Signal Breakdown

Price vs 200MA

+25

6% above 200MA, strong uptrend

6M Momentum

+10

+9% in 6 months, positive

Volume Trend

Volume normal (0.9x avg)

52-Week Range

Mid-range (54th pctile), neutral

RSI-14

+10

RSI 58, healthy bullish range

✓ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”

Chart alignment supports an aggressive position.

🔬

Full Institutional Analysis

6 sections · Click tabs to navigate

POWER USER

💰 Valuation 📈 Momentum ⚠️ Risk 🌍 Macro 📋 Thesis 🏛️ Buffett

Base EBIT (Operating Income) TTM	$32.2B
Line 5: D&A Adj. (Over-depreciation add-back)	+$1.7B
Line 7: Marketing Growth Add-Back (7yr brand life, historical)	+$6M
Adjusted EBIT	$33.9B
× (1 − Tax Rate) (15.1% actual ETR)	$28.7B
Sustainable NOPAT ÷ WACC (16.0%)	$179.1B
Santos/Greenwald Enhancements ROIC 18.5% (Franchise)Smoothed Margin 46.0%Brand Asset $73MD&A Method: Rev Growth Proxy

1	Base EBIT (Operating Income)	$32.2B	From income statement
2	D&A Adjustment (Greenwald Line 5)	+$1.7B	Over/underdepreciation vs maintenance CapEx
3	Marketing Growth Add-Back (Line 7)	+$6M	Marketing $22M − Brand amort $15M (7yr life, historical)
ℹ	SBC (already in EBIT)	−$3.9B	6.3% of rev, real cost, no add-back
4	= Adjusted EBIT	$33.9B
5	x (1 - Tax Rate)		15.1% actual ETR
=	Sustainable NOPAT	$28.7B	Net Operating Profit After Tax
/	WACC (16.0%)		Weighted average cost of capital
=	EPV Operating	$179.1B	Enterprise value on no-growth basis
+	Cash	+$10.6B
-	Total Debt	-$8.5B
=	EPV of Equity	$181.3B
/	Shares Outstanding	24304M
=	EPV Per Share	$7.46	vs. Market Price $203.09

Asset	Book	Haircut	Liquidation
Cash	$32.9B	100%	$32.9B
Receivables	$55.8B	85%	$47.4B
Inventory	$55.8B	60%	$33.5B
PP&E	$10.4B	50%	$5.2B
Other	$27.9B	25%	$7.0B
Goodwill	$20.8B	0%	N/A
Intangibles	$3.3B	0%	N/A

Dash: NVDA

Portfolio Analysis

INVESTMENT THESIS

Comparable Company Analysis

Relative Valuation Score

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Consensus Delta: 6/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

Macro Compass

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Comparable Company Analysis

Relative Valuation Score

Druckenmiller Signals

Soros Reflexivity Signals