01
What it's worth
Every method, one scale, $0 to $40
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. has modest 7% upside with A-grade earnings.
2 ways of valuing Hims & Hers Health land between $30.85 and $36.07. Our number, $36.07, comes from Growth-adjusted earnings, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueGrowth-adjusted earnings, primary
$36.07+7% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$30.85-9%
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. With no earnings-based floor available, there is no reading here of how much of the price is growth.
02
The business
What the quality readings say
On quality, Hims & Hers Health reads strongest through the momentum lens at 92 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital-32.0%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score90
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load2.44×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market2.42×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03
What could go wrong
The case against buying today
The risk here is the balance sheet as much as the multiple. Leverage this size limits how much a bad year can be absorbed.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$18.58-45.0%
Our valuePrimary method
$36.07+6.8%
Same $0 to $40 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +7% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
The balance sheet is leveredDebt to equity of 2.44x. Leverage that size turns a bad year into a solvency question.
Little margin for error on priceAt +7%, the stock is close to fair. There is no discount absorbing a bad quarter.
It moves more than the marketVolatility of 2.42x the market. Position sizing matters more here than the entry price.
Short sellers are positioned against it32% of the float is sold short.
04
The committee
3 buy · 0 hold · 4 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They mostly agree, and not in your favour: the objections are spread across the business, the price and the trend rather than sitting in one lens.
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Buy
The chart confirms the story. Price is above its key averages and the trend is intact.
92
LaffontGrowth lens
Buy
Growth and margin together read 67, which is the level where this lens treats a business as exceptional.
90
DalioMacro lens
Buy
Liquidity and credit conditions are supportive of taking risk here.
78
CohenVs. peers lens
Wait
Against comparable companies the multiples here are rich.
42
GreenwaldValue lens
Wait
Without positive, steady profits this lens has nothing to anchor on.
38
AckmanCatalyst lens
Wait
No clear near-term event to force a re-rating. This lens needs a catalyst it can name.
32
GriffinRisk lens
Wait
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 2.44x and volatility of 2.42x the market.
0