Dash: RGTI

Multi-Manager Framework: Greenwald + Dalio + Soros + Druckenmiller + Laffont + Ackman + Cohen/Griffin

Generated: 2026-07-20 18:31:15 · EDGAR + yfinance

Portfolio Summary, 1 Positions
HIGH HEAT
Sector Allocation
Technology
100%
Risk Metrics
Portfolio Beta: 1.96
Positions: 1 (RGTI)
Sectors: 1
⚠ Only 1 position, single-stock risk >25% each
⚠ Technology: 100% of portfolio, Druckenmiller: diversify across sectors
⚠ Portfolio beta 1.96, high systematic risk exposure

Portfolio Analysis

RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. · Technology · $4.8B · Pre-Revenue / Early Stage
$14.41
Be Careful
Rigetti Computing, Inc. looks 24% undervalued with D-grade earnings.
Fair Value
$17.92
ⓘ
Blended Fair Value Methodology
This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: N/A
Adjusted EBIT: N/A
WACC: 15.3%
Tax Rate: 25.0% (statutory)
EPV/Share: $0.14
Margin of Safety: -10547%
Upside
+24%
Risk Level
High
Position Size
1.5%
WATCHLIST (Score below 58)
Confidence Low (47/100)
→ Fundamentals look constructive, but the chart is weak. Wait for trend confirmation, a move back above the 200-day average, before entering.
1 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Ackman (67/100) · Watch: Druckenmiller (13/100)
✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →
✗CHART DIVERGES(0/100), Technical picture contradicts the fundamental thesis, downtrend, weak momentum,
Is It a Good Price?
24% below fair value · EQ Grade D
+24%
Across multiple valuation frameworks (analyst consensus, earnings power, and growth models), the stock's estimated fair value is about $17.92. At today's price of $14.41, that implies 24% upside. Earnings quality is rated D.

INVESTMENT THESIS

RGTI is 10547% above EPV, pure growth/narrative bet. Grade D quality. At this premium, you need everything to go right. Position size should reflect speculation, not conviction.

Neutral setup, no strong reflexivity signal. Limited catalysts visible. Monitor for Stage 2 entry signal. Patience is a position.

Composite
47
/ 100
R/R Ratio
2.4x
MARGINAL
Consensus
1/7, LOW CONSENSUS, size down
EQ Grade
D
3/10
Return Target
+109% / +120%
Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Subject with 63% gross margins vs 50% peer median.
Rigetti Computing, superconducting quantum; direct hardware peer to IONQ
Premium / Discount vs Peers
CheaperPeer MedianRicher
EV/Revenue
+59%
Ticker Rationale Mkt Cap EV/EBITDA TTM EV/EBIT TTM EV/Rev TTM EV/FCF TTM Fwd P/E FWD EBITDA Mg TTM Rev Gr. YoY ND/EBITDA
QBTS ✓ Primary: D-Wave Quantum, annealing + gate-mod $6B N/A N/A 821x N/A -43.1x N/A +41% N/A
QUBT ✓ Secondary: Quantum Computing Inc, photonic qu $2B N/A N/A 4660x N/A -21.0x N/A +71% N/A
ARQQ ~ Adjacent: Arqit Quantum, quantum encryption p $299M N/A N/A 278x N/A -16.2x N/A +830% N/A
QTUM ~ Adjacent: Defiance Quantum ETF, broad quantum N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0% N/A
Peer Median N/A N/A N/A 278x N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subject Company N/A N/A N/A 442x N/A -71.7x N/A N/A N/A
Implied Price, Comps Football Field
EV/Revenue
$9
Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.
Yahoo Finance (unaudited)

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive
50
/ 100
Neutral Relative Valuation
Neutral
Peer Reliability: High
No clear quality-adjusted discount signal. 0 of 3 multiples below peer median across 4 peers.
EV/EBITDA 0% premium
EV/Revenue +59% premium
Fwd P/E 0% premium
Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.
What Could Go Right
Strong upside potential
+120%
✦ Best case: stock could reach $31.71 (+120%)
✦ Base case return of +109% over 12 months

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Catalyst Density: HIGH (5 events)
Avg Impact: 7.0/10
📊
Earnings Report, 2026-05-11
EPS est direction: DOWN | Vol 151% = ±38% expected move
■■■■■■■■□□
8/10
📈
Revenue Inflection, 344% fwd growth
Forward revenue acceleration signals secular growth re-rating
■■■■■■■■□□
8/10
🔥
Short Squeeze Risk, 17.7% SI
High short interest creates asymmetric upside if positive catalyst triggers covering
■■■■■■■□□□
7/10
🎯
Analyst Re-Rating, 109% consensus upside
Target $30.07, potential for price target raises if execution continues
■■■■■■□□□□
6/10
🌊
Reflexivity Risk, High Beta + Vol
Beta 1.96× / Vol 151%, momentum reversal could cascade
■■■■■■□□□□
6/10

Consensus Delta: 1/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

32/10
Buffett/Greenwald
Below 200MA, margin of safety insufficient.
50/10
Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.
50/10
Soros
Stage 0 cycle, monitor momentum closely.
13/10
Druckenmiller
Below 200MA, stay out. Liquidity premium 0.6x.
67/10
Ackman
Target upside 108% with asymmetry 6.7/10 catalyst strength.
45/10
Laffont
Rule of 40: -545.2%, Trade at own risk.
22/10
Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 150.9% annualized, size accordingly. Beta 1.96x.
50/10
Peer Relative
Premium to peer group, growth priced in.
What Could Go Wrong
Several risk factors
-45%
Z-Score: 22.7 (Safe)
⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $7.93 (-45%)
⚠ Trading below its long-term trend (bearish signal)
⚠ High volatility, 2.0x more volatile than the market
⚠ Earnings quality rated D, profits may not be sustainable

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

  • Paying 10547% growth premium, entire thesis depends on future growth materialising.
  • Below 200-day MA, Druckenmiller would not touch this without confirmation.
  • Earnings quality grade D, cash conversion only 0x, accruals elevated.
  • Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.
  • High beta (1.96), will amplify any market drawdown.
Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)
4
Piotroski F-Score: Moderate
4/9, Financial Strength
✗ ROA negative
✗ Operating CF negative
✗ ROA below 3% threshold
✓ Cash flow > Net Income (low accruals)
✓ Low leverage (D/E < 0.5)
✓ No debt outstanding
✗ Low insider ownership
✓ Gross margin > 30%
✗ Asset turnover ≤ 0.5x
22.74
Altman Z-Score: Safe Zone
Bankruptcy risk gauge
Z < 1.81
Distress
1.81-2.99
Grey Zone
Z > 2.99
Safe
The Market Backdrop
Stage 0 of 8: an uncertain phase
Stage 0 of 8
The broader market appears to be in an uncertain phase of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE
VALUE CYCLICAL
SECULAR GROWTH
GROWTH CYCLICAL
Growth Sensitivity →
Rate Sensitivity →
Quadrant
GROWTH CYCLICAL
High growth but rate-sensitive, volatile around Fed decisions
Growth Sens.
60/100
Rate Sens.
65/100
Soros Stage
0, Unclassified
Beta
1.96×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception
② Acceleration
③ Testing
④ Conviction
⑤ Twilight
⑥ Reversal
⑦ Crisis
⑧ Normalize
Loop Strength
55/100
Self-reinforcing downtrend, selling begets selling, confidence eroding
Loop Direction
NEGATIVE
Stage: Unclassified
6M Mom: -43% · Earn Growth: 0%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts
① Early Easing
② Mid Easing
③ Transition
④ Tightening
Liquidity Cycle
MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops
Liquidity Score
85/100
EXPANDING
Fed Balance Sheet
+0.56% (3m)
3-month rate of change
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
(-0.01% vs 3m ago)
M2 Supply
+5.1% YoY
Year-over-year growth
"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0
Credit Score
58/100
CREDIT EASING
HY Spread (OAS)
2.73%
Trend: -4.2% (3m)
Consumer Credit
+1.0% (6m)
6-month growth rate
BBB Spread
-3.0% (3m)
Collateral quality
Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength
20/100
LOOP BREAKING DOWN
Feedback Factors
• Revenue declining with price, negative loop confirmed ✓
• Analyst EPS revisions DOWN with price, negative reflexive loop ✓
Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.
Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller
Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal
MIXED
DXY: FLAT (2.9%) Oil: FALLING (-8.3%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)
Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction
Druckenmiller Leading Indicators
MIXED
XHB: -2.9% XRT: 1.6% IYT: 7.5% SPY: 5.3%
Mixed signals from leading indicators
Soros Currency Reflexivity
RISING DOLLAR (DXY 2.9% 3mo)
DXY +2.9%, mild dollar headwind
Bessent 50/30/20 Attribution
Market (50%)
5.3%
SPY 3mo
Sector (30%)
14.6%
XLK
Alpha (20%)
-41.2%
Stock-specific
Tide: WITH TIDE
CAPEX CYCLE TOP WARNING
⚠ CapEx intensity 143.2% with revenue growth only -18.5%, Druckenmiller cycle top signal
Chart & Technicals
✗ Chart diverges from the thesis · Score 0/100
0/100
Technical picture contradicts the fundamental thesis, downtrend, weak momentum, or fading volume.
Signal Breakdown
Price vs 200MA
-25
38% below 200MA, downtrend
6M Momentum
-20
-44% in 6 months, sharp decline
Volume Trend
-10
Volume drying up (0.6x avg), fading interest
52-Week Range
-10
Near 52-week low (4th pctile), distressed
RSI-14
-5
RSI 20, extreme oversold, could be value trap or capitulation
✗ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”
Chart diverges from thesis, reduce position size or wait for confirmation.
🔬
Full Institutional Analysis
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