Dash: QNT

Multi-Manager Framework: Greenwald + Dalio + Soros + Druckenmiller + Laffont + Ackman + Cohen/Griffin

Generated: 2026-07-20 18:35:15 · EDGAR + yfinance

Portfolio Summary, 1 Positions
HIGH HEAT
Sector Allocation
Technology
100%
Risk Metrics
Portfolio Beta: 1.0
Positions: 1 (QNT)
Sectors: 1
⚠ Only 1 position, single-stock risk >25% each
⚠ Technology: 100% of portfolio, Druckenmiller: diversify across sectors

Portfolio Analysis

QNT
Quantinuum Inc. · Technology · $15.0B · Pre-Revenue / Early Stage
$57.71
Be Careful
Quantinuum Inc. looks 15% undervalued with F-grade earnings.
Fair Value
$66.62
ⓘ
Blended Fair Value Methodology
This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: N/A
Adjusted EBIT: N/A
WACC: 9.9%
Tax Rate: 25.0% (statutory)
EPV/Share: $23.53
Margin of Safety: -145%
Upside
+15%
Risk Level
Medium
Position Size
3.0%
WATCHLIST (Score below 58)
Confidence Low (52/100)
→ Wait for a better risk/reward setup before committing capital.
0 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Ackman (57/100) · Watch: Greenwald (27/100)
✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →
○CHART NEUTRAL(50/100), Chart is mixed, some technical signals support the thesis but others suggest cau
Is It a Good Price?
15% below fair value · EQ Grade F
+15%
Across multiple valuation frameworks (analyst consensus, earnings power, and growth models), the stock's estimated fair value is about $66.62. At today's price of $57.71, that implies 15% upside. Earnings quality is rated F.

INVESTMENT THESIS

QNT is 145% above EPV, pure growth/narrative bet. Grade F quality. At this premium, you need everything to go right. Position size should reflect speculation, not conviction.

Neutral setup, no strong reflexivity signal. Limited catalysts visible. Monitor for Stage 2 entry signal. Patience is a position.

Composite
52
/ 100
R/R Ratio
1.6x
BELOW THRESHOLD
Consensus
0/7, LOW CONSENSUS, size down
EQ Grade
F
1/10
Return Target
+71% / +120%
Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Grade B Same 3-digit SIC group, related industry
Subject with 74% gross margins vs 79% peer median.
Grade B match (3digit)
Premium / Discount vs Peers
CheaperPeer MedianRicher
EV/Revenue
+5064%
Fwd P/E
-211%
Ticker Rationale Mkt Cap EV/EBITDA TTM EV/EBIT TTM EV/Rev TTM EV/FCF TTM Fwd P/E FWD EBITDA Mg TTM Rev Gr. YoY ND/EBITDA
QUBT ✓ , Quantum Computing Inc. $2B N/A N/A 4664x N/A -21.0x N/A +71% N/A
PLTR ✓ , Palantir Technologies Inc. $326B N/A N/A 152.8x 557x 64.9x N/A +31% N/A
CRM ✓ , Salesforce, Inc. N/A 7.9x N/A 1.2x 4.4x 11.3x +16% +12% 2.7x
DDOG ✓ , Datadog, Inc. $95B N/A N/A 43.9x 153.5x 92.4x N/A +35% N/A
DOCS ✓ , Doximity, Inc. $4B 21.9x N/A 8.0x 18.1x 13.7x +37% +17% 0.1x
ZS ✓ , Zscaler, Inc. $25B N/A N/A 16.1x 75.4x 33.2x N/A +41% N/A
Peer Median N/A 14.9x N/A 16.1x 46.7x 33.2x +26% N/A 1.4x
Subject Company N/A N/A N/A 833x N/A -36.9x N/A N/A N/A
Implied Price, Comps Football Field
EV/Revenue
$32
Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.
SEC 10-K filings

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive
41
/ 100
Bubble Risk Detected
Expensive
Peer Reliability: High
Significant premium to peer group. ⚠ Extreme premium detected on 1+ multiples, potential overvaluation. 1 of 3 multiples below peer median across 6 peers.
EV/EBITDA 0% premium
EV/Revenue +5064% premium
Fwd P/E -211% discount
Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.
What Could Go Right
Strong upside potential
+120%
✦ Best case: stock could reach $126.96 (+120%)
✦ Base case return of +71% over 12 months

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Catalyst Density: MODERATE (4 events)
Avg Impact: 7.0/10
📈
Revenue Inflection, 160% fwd growth
Forward revenue acceleration signals secular growth re-rating
■■■■■■■■□□
8/10
📊
Earnings Report, 1774915200
EPS est direction: DOWN | Vol 115% = ±29% expected move
■■■■■■■□□□
7/10
🔥
Short Squeeze Risk, 15.4% SI
High short interest creates asymmetric upside if positive catalyst triggers covering
■■■■■■■□□□
7/10
🎯
Analyst Re-Rating, 71% consensus upside
Target $98.75, potential for price target raises if execution continues
■■■■■■□□□□
6/10

Consensus Delta: 0/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

27/10
Buffett/Greenwald
Below 200MA, margin of safety insufficient.
50/10
Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.
50/10
Soros
Stage 0 cycle, monitor momentum closely.
50/10
Druckenmiller
Below 200MA, stay out. Liquidity premium 0x.
57/10
Ackman
Target upside 71% with asymmetry 5.7/10 catalyst strength.
45/10
Laffont
Rule of 40: -1450.3%, Trade at own risk.
32/10
Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 114.7% annualized, size accordingly. Beta 1x.
41/10
Peer Relative
Premium to peer group, growth priced in.
What Could Go Wrong
Manageable risks
-45%
Z-Score: 55.8 (Safe)
⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $31.74 (-45%)
⚠ Earnings quality rated F, profits may not be sustainable

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

  • Paying 145% growth premium, entire thesis depends on future growth materialising.
  • Earnings quality grade F, cash conversion only 0x, accruals elevated.
  • Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.
  • Revenue declining -72% YoY, structural headwind to monitor.
  • High short interest (15%), the market disagrees with thesis.
Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)
3
Piotroski F-Score: Weak
3/9, Financial Strength
✗ ROA negative
✗ Operating CF negative
✗ ROA below 3% threshold
✗ Cash flow ≤ Net Income
✓ Low leverage (D/E < 0.5)
✓ Cash covers >30% of debt
✗ Low insider ownership
✓ Gross margin > 30%
✗ Asset turnover ≤ 0.5x
55.79
Altman Z-Score: Safe Zone
Bankruptcy risk gauge
Z < 1.81
Distress
1.81-2.99
Grey Zone
Z > 2.99
Safe
The Market Backdrop
Stage 0 of 8: an uncertain phase
Stage 0 of 8
The broader market appears to be in an uncertain phase of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE
VALUE CYCLICAL
SECULAR GROWTH
GROWTH CYCLICAL
Growth Sensitivity →
Rate Sensitivity →
Quadrant
VALUE CYCLICAL
Rate-driven value, benefits from rate cuts, struggles with hikes
Growth Sens.
45/100
Rate Sens.
65/100
Soros Stage
0, Unclassified
Beta
1.00×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception
② Acceleration
③ Testing
④ Conviction
⑤ Twilight
⑥ Reversal
⑦ Crisis
⑧ Normalize
Loop Strength
30/100
No strong feedback loop detected, watch for catalysts to trigger one
Loop Direction
NEUTRAL
Stage: Unclassified
6M Mom: 0% · Earn Growth: 0%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts
① Early Easing
② Mid Easing
③ Transition
④ Tightening
Liquidity Cycle
MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops
Liquidity Score
85/100
EXPANDING
Fed Balance Sheet
+0.56% (3m)
3-month rate of change
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
(-0.01% vs 3m ago)
M2 Supply
+5.1% YoY
Year-over-year growth
"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0
Credit Score
58/100
CREDIT EASING
HY Spread (OAS)
2.73%
Trend: -4.2% (3m)
Consumer Credit
+1.0% (6m)
6-month growth rate
BBB Spread
-3.0% (3m)
Collateral quality
Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength
0/100
NO REFLEXIVE LOOP DETECTED
Feedback Factors
Insufficient data for feedback loop detection
Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.
Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller
Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal
MIXED
DXY: FLAT (2.9%) Oil: FALLING (-8.1%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)
Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction
Druckenmiller Leading Indicators
MIXED
XHB: -3.0% XRT: 1.5% IYT: 7.4% SPY: 5.2%
Mixed signals from leading indicators
Soros Currency Reflexivity
RISING DOLLAR (DXY 2.9% 3mo)
DXY +2.9%, mild dollar headwind
CAPEX CYCLE TOP WARNING
⚠ CapEx intensity 439.5% with revenue growth only -72.6%, Druckenmiller cycle top signal
Chart & Technicals
○ Chart is neutral to the thesis · Score 50/100
50/100
Chart is mixed, some technical signals support the thesis but others suggest caution.
Signal Breakdown
Price vs 200MA
+0
No data
6M Momentum
+0
No data
Volume Trend
+0
No data
52-Week Range
-5
Lower range (21th pctile), weak
RSI-14
+5
RSI 38, oversold, potential bounce
○ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”
Chart is neutral, standard position sizing recommended.
🔬
Full Institutional Analysis
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