Dash: SGMA

Multi-Manager Framework: Greenwald + Dalio + Soros + Druckenmiller + Laffont + Ackman + Cohen/Griffin

Generated: 2026-07-21 08:14:27 · EDGAR + yfinance

Portfolio Summary, 1 Positions
HIGH HEAT
Sector Allocation
Technology
100%
Risk Metrics
Portfolio Beta: 1.45
Positions: 1 (SGMA)
Sectors: 1
⚠ Only 1 position, single-stock risk >25% each
⚠ Technology: 100% of portfolio, Druckenmiller: diversify across sectors

Portfolio Analysis

SGMA
SigmaTron International, Inc. · Technology · $18.4M · Pre-Revenue / Early Stage
$3.01
Worth Watching
SigmaTron International, Inc. is near fair value with D-grade earnings.
Fair Value
$2.91
ⓘ
Blended Fair Value Methodology
This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: N/A
Adjusted EBIT: N/A
WACC: 11.6%
Tax Rate: 25.0% (statutory)
EPV/Share: $0.00
Margin of Safety: 0%
Upside
-3%
Risk Level
Medium
Position Size
3.0%
WATCHLIST (Score below 58)
Confidence Moderate (55/100)
→ Watch for a pullback below $2.62 to enter.
0 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Druckenmiller (50/100) · Watch: Greenwald (30/100)
✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →
○CHART NEUTRAL(50/100), Chart is mixed, some technical signals support the thesis but others suggest cau
Is It a Good Price?
Near fair value · EQ Grade D
-3%
The stock appears to be trading near its estimated fair value of $2.91. Earnings quality is rated D, something to monitor.

INVESTMENT THESIS

SGMA trades at 0% premium to EPV, the market is pricing in significant growth. Grade D quality (EQ 2/10). ROIC below WACC, growth may destroy value. Greenwald red flag.

Neutral setup, no strong reflexivity signal. Limited catalysts visible. Monitor for Stage 2 entry signal. Patience is a position.

Composite
55
/ 100
R/R Ratio
0.1x
NO ASYMMETRY ✗
Consensus
0/7, LOW CONSENSUS, size down
EQ Grade
D
2/10
Return Target
+0% / +29%
Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Grade D No SIC match, sector fallback
Subject comparable company multiples shown below.
No direct comps identified, showing diversified large-cap benchmarks
Ticker Rationale Mkt Cap EV/EBITDA TTM EV/EBIT TTM EV/Rev TTM EV/FCF TTM Fwd P/E FWD EBITDA Mg TTM Rev Gr. YoY ND/EBITDA
AAPL ✓ Benchmark: Apple, $3T market cap proxy for br $4.8T 37.2x N/A 12.5x 47.7x 33.9x +34% +3% 0.7x
MSFT ✓ Benchmark: Microsoft, diversified tech; cloud $3.0T 28.3x N/A 14.1x 47.7x 20.8x +50% +14% 0.4x
JNJ ✓ Benchmark: J&J, diversified healthcare; defen $599B 23.4x N/A 7.7x 34.5x 19.4x +33% +5% 1.5x
PG ✓ Benchmark: Procter & Gamble, consumer staples $347B 18.0x N/A 4.7x 26.1x 21.1x +26% +3% 1.2x
JPM ✓ Benchmark: JPMorgan, financials baseline; eco $901B N/A N/A 14.5x N/A 13.7x N/A +11% N/A
Peer Median N/A 25.9x N/A 12.5x 41.1x 20.8x +33% N/A 0.9x
Subject Company N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.
Yahoo Finance (unaudited)

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive
50
/ 100
Neutral Relative Valuation
Neutral
Peer Reliability: High
No clear quality-adjusted discount signal. 0 of 3 multiples below peer median across 5 peers.
EV/EBITDA 0% premium
EV/Revenue 0% premium
Fwd P/E 0% premium
Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.
What Could Go Right
Strong upside potential
+29%
✦ Best case: stock could reach $3.88 (+29%)

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

No catalysts detected, verify manually on company website or SEC filings.

Consensus Delta: 0/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

30/10
Buffett/Greenwald
Below 200MA, margin of safety insufficient.
50/10
Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.
50/10
Soros
Stage 0 cycle, monitor momentum closely.
50/10
Druckenmiller
Below 200MA, stay out. Liquidity premium 0.0x.
50/10
Ackman
Target upside -100% with asymmetry 5.0/10 catalyst strength.
50/10
Laffont
Rule of 40: 0%, Trade at own risk.
44/10
Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 0% annualized, size accordingly. Beta 1.45x.
50/10
Peer Relative
Premium to peer group, growth priced in.
What Could Go Wrong
Manageable risks
-29%
⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $2.14 (-29%)
⚠ Earnings quality rated D, profits may not be sustainable

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

  • Earnings quality grade D, cash conversion only 0x, accruals elevated.
  • Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.
Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)
1
Piotroski F-Score: Weak
1/9, Financial Strength
✗ ROA negative
✗ Operating CF negative
✗ ROA below 3% threshold
✗ Cash flow ≤ Net Income
✗ Elevated leverage (D/E ≥ 0.5)
✓ No debt outstanding
✗ Low insider ownership
✗ Gross margin ≤ 30%
✗ Asset turnover ≤ 0.5x
N/A
Altman Z-Score: N/A
Bankruptcy risk gauge
Z < 1.81
Distress
1.81-2.99
Grey Zone
Z > 2.99
Safe
The Market Backdrop
Stage 0 of 8: an uncertain phase
Stage 0 of 8
The broader market appears to be in an uncertain phase of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE
VALUE CYCLICAL
SECULAR GROWTH
GROWTH CYCLICAL
Growth Sensitivity →
Rate Sensitivity →
Quadrant
SECULAR GROWTH
Growth engine with low rate risk, ideal for sustained compounding
Growth Sens.
65/100
Rate Sens.
45/100
Soros Stage
0, Unclassified
Beta
1.45×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception
② Acceleration
③ Testing
④ Conviction
⑤ Twilight
⑥ Reversal
⑦ Crisis
⑧ Normalize
Loop Strength
0/100
No strong feedback loop detected, watch for catalysts to trigger one
Loop Direction
NEUTRAL
Stage: Unclassified
6M Mom: 0% · Earn Growth: 0%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts
① Early Easing
② Mid Easing
③ Transition
④ Tightening
Liquidity Cycle
MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops
Liquidity Score
85/100
EXPANDING
Fed Balance Sheet
+0.53% (3m)
3-month rate of change
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
(-0.01% vs 3m ago)
M2 Supply
+5.1% YoY
Year-over-year growth
"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0
Credit Score
58/100
CREDIT EASING
HY Spread (OAS)
2.73%
Trend: -3.9% (3m)
Consumer Credit
+1.0% (6m)
6-month growth rate
BBB Spread
-2.0% (3m)
Collateral quality
Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength
0/100
NO REFLEXIVE LOOP DETECTED
Feedback Factors
Insufficient data for feedback loop detection
Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.
Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller
Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal
MIXED
DXY: FLAT (2.5%) Oil: FALLING (-11.1%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)
Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction
Druckenmiller Leading Indicators
MIXED
XHB: -2.9% XRT: 1.3% IYT: 7.3% SPY: 5.0%
Mixed signals from leading indicators
Soros Currency Reflexivity
RISING DOLLAR (DXY 2.5% 3mo)
DXY +2.5%, mild dollar headwind
Chart & Technicals
○ Chart is neutral to the thesis · Score 50/100
50/100
Chart is mixed, some technical signals support the thesis but others suggest caution.
Signal Breakdown
Price vs 200MA
+0
No data
6M Momentum
+0
No data
Volume Trend
+0
No data
52-Week Range
+0
No data
RSI-14
+0
No data
○ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”
Chart is neutral, standard position sizing recommended.
🔬
Full Institutional Analysis
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