Dash: ETN

ETN

Eaton Corporation plc · Industrials · $155.9B · Established

$401.41

Strong Opportunity

Eaton Corporation plc is near fair value with A-grade earnings.

Fair Value

$397.74

ⓘ

Blended Fair Value Methodology

This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: $3.8B
Adjusted EBIT: $4.4B
WACC: 9.1%
Tax Rate: 17.1% (computed)
EPV/Share: $82.56
Margin of Safety: -386%

Upside

-1%

Risk Level

Low-Medium

Position Size

15.0%

CORE HOLDING (Score 82+)

Confidence Very High (84/100)

→ Consider buying at $401.41 with a 12-month hold.

6 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Druckenmiller (100/100) · Watch: Soros (50/100)

✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →

✓CHART CONFIRMS(100/100), Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and vo

Is It a Good Price?

Near fair value · EQ Grade A

-1%

The stock appears to be trading near its estimated fair value of $397.74. Earnings quality is rated A, a strong sign.

INVESTMENT THESIS

ETN is 386% above EPV, pure growth/narrative bet. Grade A quality. At this premium, you need everything to go right. Position size should reflect speculation, not conviction.

Trend intact, above 200MA with 17% momentum. Revenue growing 8% with 37% gross margins. Need earnings acceleration for full conviction.

Composite

/ 100

R/R Ratio

0.3x

NO ASYMMETRY ✗

Consensus

6/7 managers AGREE, high conviction

EQ Grade

8/10

Return Target

+14% / +80%

Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Grade C Same 2-digit SIC division, broader match

Subject trades at 34.4x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 53.4x, a 36% discount, with 21% EBITDA margins vs 27% peer median, 1.7x net leverage (less levered than 1.8x peer median).

Grade C match (2digit)

Premium / Discount vs Peers

CheaperPeer MedianRicher

EV/EBITDA

-36%

EV/Revenue

-69%

EV/FCF

+2%

Fwd P/E

-33%

Ticker	Rationale	Mkt Cap	EV/EBITDA TTM	EV/EBIT TTM	EV/Rev TTM	EV/FCF TTM	Fwd P/E FWD	EBITDA Mg TTM	Rev Gr. YoY	ND/EBITDA
FTNT ✓	, Fortinet, Inc.	$117B	80.6x	N/A	22.9x	59.6x	46.8x	+28%	+19%	0.3x
PANW ✓	, Palo Alto Networks Inc	$284B	679x	N/A	42.2x	115.6x	84.5x	+6%	+21%	4.7x
ITW ✓	, ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC	$78B	20.6x	N/A	5.6x	34.0x	22.3x	+27%	+3%	1.8x
LRCX ✓	, LAM RESEARCH CORP	$384B	71.9x	N/A	23.4x	86.6x	38.0x	+33%	+6%	0.7x
CAT ✓	, CATERPILLAR INC	$398B	35.0x	N/A	7.1x	51.5x	28.4x	+20%	+7%	2.4x
Peer Median		N/A	53.4x	N/A	22.9x	59.6x	38.0x	+27%	N/A	1.8x
Subject Company		N/A	34.4x	N/A	7.1x	60.9x	25.4x	+21%	N/A	1.7x

Implied Price, Comps Football Field

EV/EBITDA

$636

EV/Revenue

$1,345

EV/FCF

$393

Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.

SEC 10-K filings

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive

/ 100

Fair Relative Valuation

Neutral

Peer Reliability: Medium

No clear quality-adjusted discount signal. 3 of 3 multiples below peer median across 5 peers.

EV/EBITDA -36% discount

EV/Revenue -69% discount

Fwd P/E -33% discount

Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.

What Could Go Right

Strong upside potential

+80%

✦ Best case: stock could reach $721.66 (+80%)

✦ Base case return of +14% over 12 months

✦ Trading above its long-term trend (bullish signal)

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Catalyst Density: LOW (2 events)

Avg Impact: 7.0/10

📊

Earnings Report, 2026-07-31

EPS est direction: UP | Vol 37% = ±9% expected move

■■■■■■■■■□

9/10

📈

Revenue Inflection, 25% fwd growth

Forward revenue acceleration signals secular growth re-rating

■■■■■□□□□□

5/10

Consensus Delta: 6/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

67/10

Buffett/Greenwald
Price 401.41 vs AV -47.82, apply A quality filter before committing capital.

50/10

Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.

50/10

Soros
Stage 0 cycle, monitor momentum closely.

100/10

Druckenmiller
Above 200MA, trend intact. Liquidity premium 0.93x.

87/10

Ackman
Target upside 13% with asymmetry 8.7/10 catalyst strength.

68/10

Laffont
Rule of 40: 20.4%, Trade at own risk.

60/10

Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 36.8% annualized, size accordingly. Beta 1.18x.

68/10

Peer Relative
In-line with peers, no relative value edge.

What Could Go Wrong

Manageable risks

-45%

Z-Score: 3.6 (Safe)

⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $220.78 (-45%)

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

Paying 386% growth premium, entire thesis depends on future growth materialising.
Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.

Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)

Piotroski F-Score: Moderate

6/9, Financial Strength

✓ ROA positive

✓ Operating CF positive

✓ ROA above 3% threshold

✗ Cash flow ≤ Net Income

✓ Low leverage (D/E < 0.5)

✗ Cash covers <30% of debt

✗ Low insider ownership

✓ Gross margin > 30%

✓ Asset turnover > 0.5x

3.59

Altman Z-Score: Safe Zone

Bankruptcy risk gauge

Z < 1.81

Distress

1.81-2.99

Grey Zone

Z > 2.99

Safe

The Market Backdrop

Stage 0 of 8: an uncertain phase

Stage 0 of 8

The broader market appears to be in an uncertain phase of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE

VALUE CYCLICAL

SECULAR GROWTH

GROWTH CYCLICAL

Growth Sensitivity →

Rate Sensitivity →

Quadrant

SECULAR GROWTH

Growth engine with low rate risk, ideal for sustained compounding

Growth Sens.

65/100

Rate Sens.

50/100

Soros Stage

0, Unclassified

Beta

1.18×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception

② Acceleration

③ Testing

④ Conviction

⑤ Twilight

⑥ Reversal

⑦ Crisis

⑧ Normalize

Loop Strength

35/100

No strong feedback loop detected, watch for catalysts to trigger one

Loop Direction

NEUTRAL

Stage: Unclassified

6M Mom: 17% · Earn Growth: -9%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts

① Early Easing

② Mid Easing

③ Transition

④ Tightening

Liquidity Cycle

MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops

Liquidity Score

85/100

EXPANDING

Fed Balance Sheet

+0.53% (3m)

3-month rate of change

Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

(-0.01% vs 3m ago)

M2 Supply

+5.1% YoY

Year-over-year growth

"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0

Credit Score

58/100

CREDIT EASING

HY Spread (OAS)

2.73%

Trend: -3.9% (3m)

Consumer Credit

+1.0% (6m)

6-month growth rate

BBB Spread

-2.0% (3m)

Collateral quality

Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength

45/100

WEAK / UNCERTAIN LOOP

Feedback Factors

• Price rising but earnings weak, loop unsupported ✗

• Revenue +8% confirming uptrend ✓

• Analyst EPS revisions UP with price, reflexive feedback ✓

• EPS acceleration 53% fwd, capital cycle ✓

Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.

Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller

Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal

MIXED

DXY: FLAT (2.6%) Oil: FALLING (-10.7%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)

Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction

Druckenmiller Leading Indicators

MIXED

XHB: -2.9% XRT: 1.3% IYT: 7.3% SPY: 5.0%

Mixed signals from leading indicators

Soros Currency Reflexivity

RISING DOLLAR (DXY 2.6% 3mo)

DXY +2.6%, mild dollar headwind

Bessent 50/30/20 Attribution

Market (50%)

5.0%

SPY 3mo

Sector (30%)

2.7%

XLI

Alpha (20%)

-3.9%

Stock-specific

Tide: WITH TIDE

Chart & Technicals

✓ Chart confirms the thesis · Score 100/100

100/100

Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and volume all align.

Signal Breakdown

Price vs 200MA

+25

8% above 200MA, strong uptrend

6M Momentum

+20

+17% in 6 months, strong momentum

Volume Trend

Volume normal (0.9x avg)

52-Week Range

+10

Upper half of range (72th pctile), healthy

RSI-14

RSI 48, neutral, room to run

✓ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”

Chart alignment supports an aggressive position.

🔬

Full Institutional Analysis

6 sections · Click tabs to navigate

POWER USER

💰 Valuation 📈 Momentum ⚠️ Risk 🌍 Macro 📋 Thesis 🏛️ Buffett

Base EBIT (Operating Income) TTM	$3.8B
Line 5: D&A Adj. (Over-depreciation add-back)	+$592M
Adjusted EBIT	$4.4B
× (1 − Tax Rate) (17.1% actual ETR)	$3.7B
Sustainable NOPAT ÷ WACC (9.1%)	$40.2B
Santos/Greenwald Enhancements ROIC 13.3% (Franchise)Smoothed Margin 16.3%D&A Method: Rev Growth Proxy

1	Base EBIT (Operating Income)	$3.8B	From income statement
2	D&A Adjustment (Greenwald Line 5)	+$592M	Over/underdepreciation vs maintenance CapEx
ℹ	SBC (already in EBIT)	−$11M	0.1% of rev, real cost, no add-back
3	= Adjusted EBIT	$4.4B
4	x (1 - Tax Rate)		17.1% actual ETR
=	Sustainable NOPAT	$3.7B	Net Operating Profit After Tax
/	WACC (9.1%)		Weighted average cost of capital
=	EPV Operating	$40.2B	Enterprise value on no-growth basis
+	Cash	+$622M
-	Total Debt	-$8.8B
=	EPV of Equity	$32.0B
/	Shares Outstanding	388M
=	EPV Per Share	$82.56	vs. Market Price $401.41

Asset	Book	Haircut	Liquidation
Cash	$622.0M	100%	$622.0M
Receivables	$6.2B	85%	$5.3B
Inventory	$6.2B	60%	$3.7B
PP&E	$4.3B	50%	$2.2B
Other	$3.1B	25%	$774.5M
Goodwill	$15.8B	0%	N/A
Intangibles	$5.1B	0%	N/A

Dash: ETN

Portfolio Analysis

INVESTMENT THESIS

Comparable Company Analysis

Relative Valuation Score

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Consensus Delta: 6/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

Macro Compass

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Comparable Company Analysis

Relative Valuation Score

Druckenmiller Signals

Soros Reflexivity Signals