Dash: LNG

Multi-Manager Framework: Greenwald + Dalio + Soros + Druckenmiller + Laffont + Ackman + Cohen/Griffin

Generated: 2026-07-20 21:21:14 · EDGAR + yfinance

Portfolio Summary, 1 Positions
HIGH HEAT
Sector Allocation
Energy
100%
Risk Metrics
Portfolio Beta: -0.01
Positions: 1 (LNG)
Sectors: 1
⚠ Only 1 position, single-stock risk >25% each
⚠ Energy: 100% of portfolio, Druckenmiller: diversify across sectors
⚠ Portfolio beta -0.01, very defensive, may underperform in rallies

Portfolio Analysis

LNG
Cheniere Energy, Inc. · Energy · $55.5B · Established
$264.95
Looks Good to Buy
Cheniere Energy, Inc. looks 18% undervalued with A-grade earnings.
Fair Value
$313.26
ⓘ
Blended Fair Value Methodology
This estimate blends analyst consensus, Greenwald EPV, and growth models.

Key EPV Inputs:
Base EBIT: $4.8B
Adjusted EBIT: $7.7B
WACC: 7.5%
Tax Rate: 18.0% (computed)
EPV/Share: $224.39
Margin of Safety: -18%
Upside
+18%
Risk Level
Low-Medium
Position Size
10.0%
HIGH CONVICTION (Score 72+)
Confidence High (78/100)
→ Attractive entry near $264.95, add on any dip.
5 of 7 frameworks bullish · Strongest: Druckenmiller (100/100) · Watch: Soros (50/100)
✅Macro tailwind, liquidity expanding, favorable for entry.View Dashboard →
✓CHART CONFIRMS(100/100), Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and vo
Is It a Good Price?
18% below fair value · EQ Grade A
+18%
Across multiple valuation frameworks (analyst consensus, earnings power, and growth models), the stock's estimated fair value is about $313.26. At today's price of $264.95, that implies 18% upside. Earnings quality is rated A.

INVESTMENT THESIS

LNG trades at 18% premium to EPV, the market is pricing in significant growth. Grade A quality (EQ 9/10). Growth is justified IF ROIC stays above WACC, spread is 22.9%.

Trend intact, above 200MA with 28% momentum. Revenue growing 5% with 33% gross margins. Need earnings acceleration for full conviction.

Composite
78
/ 100
R/R Ratio
1.0x
NO ASYMMETRY ✗
Consensus
5/7 managers BUY
EQ Grade
A
9/10
Return Target
+15% / +51%
Base / Bull

Comparable Company Analysis

Grade C Same 2-digit SIC division, broader match
Subject trades at 12.9x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 19.0x, a 32% discount, with 28% EBITDA margins vs 34% peer median, 3.6x net leverage (less levered than 6.8x peer median).
Grade C match (2digit)
Premium / Discount vs Peers
CheaperPeer MedianRicher
EV/EBITDA
-32%
EV/Revenue
-42%
EV/FCF
-25%
Fwd P/E
-18%
Ticker Rationale Mkt Cap EV/EBITDA TTM EV/EBIT TTM EV/Rev TTM EV/FCF TTM Fwd P/E FWD EBITDA Mg TTM Rev Gr. YoY ND/EBITDA
SRE ✓ , SEMPRA $59B 22.0x N/A 6.7x 30.7x 16.4x +31% +2% 6.7x
D ✓ , DOMINION ENERGY, INC $62B 21.6x N/A 8.1x 30.0x 18.4x +37% +10% 8.4x
AEP ✓ , AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC $71B 18.1x N/A 6.3x 36.4x 19.1x +35% +7% 7.0x
PEG ✓ , PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC $39B 19.0x N/A 5.9x N/A 16.6x +31% +6% 6.8x
EXC ✓ , EXELON CORP $47B 13.5x N/A 4.6x N/A 15.1x +34% +8% 6.8x
Peer Median N/A 19.0x N/A 6.3x 30.7x 16.6x +34% N/A 6.8x
Subject Company N/A 12.9x N/A 3.7x 22.9x 13.6x +28% N/A 3.6x
Implied Price, Comps Football Field
EV/EBITDA
$328
EV/Revenue
$402
EV/FCF
$292
Premiums reflect subject vs peer median. High-growth names may warrant structural premium.
SEC 10-K filings

Relative Valuation Score

Expensive Attractive
99
/ 100
Attractive Relative Valuation
Excellent Value
Peer Reliability: High
High ROIC + trading below peer EV/EBITDA median. 4 of 3 multiples below peer median across 5 peers.
EV/EBITDA -32% discount
EV/Revenue -42% discount
Fwd P/E -18% discount
Score base=50 (neutral). Rewards multiples below peer median, penalizes extreme premiums. Quality-adjusted: high ROIC + low multiple = strongest conviction signal.
What Could Go Right
Strong upside potential
+51%
✦ Best case: stock could reach $400.30 (+51%)
✦ Base case return of +15% over 12 months
✦ Trading above its long-term trend (bullish signal)

Catalyst Calendar & Impact Ratings

Catalyst Density: MODERATE (3 events)
Avg Impact: 6.0/10
📊
Earnings Report, 2026-08-06
EPS est direction: UP | Vol 29% = ±7% expected move
■■■■■■■■■□
9/10
📈
Revenue Inflection, 16% fwd growth
Forward revenue acceleration signals secular growth re-rating
■■■■■□□□□□
5/10
⛽
Energy Policy / OPEC Catalyst
Commodity price swings, OPEC decisions, and energy policy shifts drive sector moves
■■■■□□□□□□
4/10

Consensus Delta: 5/7 managers BUY (score ≥ 6/10)

61/10
Buffett/Greenwald
Price 264.95 vs AV 46.66, apply A quality filter before committing capital.
50/10
Dalio
Monitor reflexivity loop, if consensus reverses, pain spreads fast.
50/10
Soros
Stage 0 cycle, monitor momentum closely.
100/10
Druckenmiller
Above 200MA, trend intact. Liquidity premium 0.98x.
77/10
Ackman
Target upside 14% with asymmetry 7.7/10 catalyst strength.
63/10
Laffont
Rule of 40: 21.8%, Trade at own risk.
56/10
Cohen/Griffin
Volatility 29.0% annualized, size accordingly. Beta -0.01x.
99/10
Peer Relative
Trading below peer multiples, market mispricing vs comps.
What Could Go Wrong
Manageable risks
-15%
Z-Score: 2.1 (Grey Zone)
⚠ Worst case: stock could drop to $224.39 (-15%)
⚠ Financial health is in a grey zone, not distressed but not strong

Why NOT to Buy (Pre-Mortem)

  • Paying 18% growth premium, entire thesis depends on future growth materialising.
  • Risk/reward only 1:1, no asymmetry at current entry, wait for better setup.
Financial Health, CBS Quant Value (Piotroski + Altman)
5
Piotroski F-Score: Moderate
5/9, Financial Strength
✓ ROA positive
✓ Operating CF positive
✓ ROA above 3% threshold
✓ Cash flow > Net Income (low accruals)
✗ Elevated leverage (D/E ≥ 0.5)
✗ Cash covers <30% of debt
✗ Low insider ownership
✓ Gross margin > 30%
✗ Asset turnover ≤ 0.5x
2.08
Altman Z-Score: Grey Zone
Bankruptcy risk gauge
Z < 1.81
Distress
1.81-2.99
Grey Zone
Z > 2.99
Safe
The Market Backdrop
Stage 0 of 8: an uncertain phase
Stage 0 of 8
The broader market appears to be in an uncertain phase of its cycle. The stock is trending below key levels, suggesting caution.

Macro Compass

DEFENSIVE
VALUE CYCLICAL
SECULAR GROWTH
GROWTH CYCLICAL
Growth Sensitivity →
Rate Sensitivity →
Quadrant
VALUE CYCLICAL
Rate-driven value, benefits from rate cuts, struggles with hikes
Growth Sens.
35/100
Rate Sens.
65/100
Soros Stage
0, Unclassified
Beta
-0.01×

Reflexivity & Boom-Bust Cycle

① Inception
② Acceleration
③ Testing
④ Conviction
⑤ Twilight
⑥ Reversal
⑦ Crisis
⑧ Normalize
Loop Strength
35/100
No strong feedback loop detected, watch for catalysts to trigger one
Loop Direction
NEUTRAL
Stage: Unclassified
6M Mom: 28% · Earn Growth: 0%

Druckenmiller Fed Liquidity Framework

Composite adj: +10 pts
① Early Easing
② Mid Easing
③ Transition
④ Tightening
Liquidity Cycle
MID EASING, Stay long, trail stops
Liquidity Score
85/100
EXPANDING
Fed Balance Sheet
+0.56% (3m)
3-month rate of change
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
(-0.01% vs 3m ago)
M2 Supply
+5.1% YoY
Year-over-year growth
"It's always, always, always about the Fed.", Druckenmiller. Liquidity cycle determines portfolio risk posture before individual stock selection.

Soros Credit/Collateral Reflexive Loop

Stage modifier: 0
Credit Score
58/100
CREDIT EASING
HY Spread (OAS)
2.73%
Trend: -4.2% (3m)
Consumer Credit
+1.0% (6m)
6-month growth rate
BBB Spread
-3.0% (3m)
Collateral quality
Soros's "first major discovery": credit availability and collateral values create self-reinforcing loops. Tightening spreads + expanding credit = reflexive boom. Widening + contracting = bust.

Reflexivity Feedback Loop, Dynamic Scoring

Loop Strength
42/100
WEAK / UNCERTAIN LOOP
Feedback Factors
• Price rising but earnings weak, loop unsupported ✗
• Forward revenue +15% expected, loop strengthening ✓
• Analyst EPS revisions UP with price, reflexive feedback ✓
• EPS acceleration 230% fwd, capital cycle ✓
Core Soros insight: price movements don't just reflect fundamentals, they CHANGE them. Score > 70 = confirmed self-reinforcing loop. Score < 30 = loop breaking or absent.
Enhanced Macro Intelligence P1 · Soros + Druckenmiller
Dollar / Oil / Rates Triple Signal
MIXED
DXY: FLAT (3.0%) Oil: FALLING (-8.0%) Rates: RISING (8.2%)
Dollar/Oil/Rates mixed, no clear macro direction
Druckenmiller Leading Indicators
MIXED
XHB: -2.9% XRT: 1.3% IYT: 7.3% SPY: 5.0%
Mixed signals from leading indicators
Soros Currency Reflexivity
RISING DOLLAR (DXY 3.0% 3mo)
DXY +3.0%, mild dollar headwind
Bessent 50/30/20 Attribution
Market (50%)
5.0%
SPY 3mo
Sector (30%)
6.0%
XLE
Alpha (20%)
-0.7%
Stock-specific
Tide: WITH TIDE
Chart & Technicals
✓ Chart confirms the thesis · Score 100/100
100/100
Technical picture supports the fundamental thesis, price trend, momentum, and volume all align.
Signal Breakdown
Price vs 200MA
+25
15% above 200MA, strong uptrend
6M Momentum
+20
+29% in 6 months, strong momentum
Volume Trend
+0
Volume normal (1.0x avg)
52-Week Range
+10
Upper half of range (69th pctile), healthy
RSI-14
+10
RSI 70, healthy bullish range
✓ Druckenmiller Rule: “The chart must confirm the thesis before you size up.”
Chart alignment supports an aggressive position.
🔬
Full Institutional Analysis
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