Dash Equity Research Note
Macro Catalysts 13F My reports Glossary
◉ English
English
Coming soon
Español
Türkçe
한국어
日本語
Menu
Macro Catalysts 13F My reports Glossary
Analyze a stock
In this report
GMEWait$13.39-26%AMZNWait$211.58-19%EANot a candidate$205.91-2%
Each name is analysed on its own. Dash does not size positions or build baskets.
GME Established
GameStop Corp. / Consumer Cyclical / $8.06B market value
Price today
$17.97
Partial data. 1 of 7 lenses could not be scored, and only one independent valuation method resolved. Read the numbers below as a partial picture, not a full one.
A business with real question marks at a full price. The committee says wait.
GameStop Corp. looks about 26% overvalued compared to our estimated fair value. Earnings quality is rated C, average and worth watching closely. 0 out of 7 investment frameworks support buying, with potential upside of +35% in a best-case scenario. The main risk to watch: it's more volatile than the average stock.
What we think it's worth
$13.39
-26% below today's price
Trend strength
50/100
Mixed

The investment decision

0 Buy3 Hold3 Wait1 No data
Greenwald
Value
Wait
37 / 100
Druckenmiller
Momentum
Hold
50 / 100
Laffont
Growth
Wait
35 / 100
Ackman
Catalyst
Hold
50 / 100
Dalio
Macro
Hold
50 / 100
Griffin
Risk
Wait
43 / 100
Cohen
Vs. peers
No data
not reporting
What to doWait
Trading above estimated fair value. Wait for a pullback toward $13.39 before considering an entry.
• What would change this: a pullback toward $13.39, which would put a margin back between the price you pay and what we think it is worth.

Where the price sits

2 independent answers to "what is this worth", on one scale.
$4.77Floor price
$17.97Today
$13.39Our value
See the full analysis ↓
Same page, keep scrolling. Valuation, the business, the risks, and what each investor said.
GME full analysis What it's worth The business What could go wrong The committee
01

What it's worth

Every method, one scale, $0 to $20

GameStop Corp. appears 26% overvalued, patience recommended.

2 ways of valuing GameStop land between $4.77 and $13.39. Our number, $13.39, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$13.39-25% vs price
Floor priceWorth of today's profits if growth stopped
$4.77-73%
$0$5$10$15$20
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what GameStop would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 73% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02

The business

What the quality readings say
On quality, GameStop reads strongest through the momentum lens at 50 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Growth plus margin-16
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score35
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.74×
0×moves 74% more than the market2×
C
Earnings quality
Average. Worth watching how profit converts to cash.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03

What could go wrong

The case against buying today
The risk here is the multiple, not the balance sheet. Most of what you pay is growth that has not happened yet, and that is the part a re-rating takes first.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$11.72-34.8%
TodayMarket price
$17.97 
Our valuePrimary method
$13.39-25.5%
Same $0 to $20 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 35% drawdown in a bad tape to earn -26% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
You are paying for growth73% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
You are paying above our estimateThe price sits 26% above what we think the business is worth.
It moves more than the marketVolatility of 1.74x the market. Position sizing matters more here than the entry price.
Balance sheet is not the problemDebt to equity of 0xx. Solvency is not a live risk in any scenario here.
04

The committee

0 buy · 3 hold · 3 wait · 1 no data
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Hold
The chart is mixed: no trend to lean on, and none to fight either.
50
AckmanCatalyst lens
Hold
No clear near-term event to force a re-rating. This lens needs a catalyst it can name.
50
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
50
GriffinRisk lens
Wait
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 1.74x the market.
43
GreenwaldValue lens
Wait
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $4.77 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
37
LaffontGrowth lens
Wait
Growth is too slow for this lens to get interested.
35
CohenVs. peers lens
No data
This lens could not be scored on the data available right now.
n/a
AMZN Established
Amazon.com, Inc. / Consumer Cyclical / $2.80T market value
Price today
$260.12
Partial data. 1 of 7 lenses could not be scored, only one independent valuation method resolved, and analyst targets and dividend data are unavailable for this large-cap right now. Read the numbers below as a partial picture, not a full one.
A great business at a full price, with the trend still strong. The committee says wait.
Amazon.com, Inc. looks about 19% overvalued compared to our estimated fair value. Earnings quality is rated A, very reliable and well-supported by cash flow. 4 out of 7 investment frameworks support buying, with potential upside of +29% in a best-case scenario. The main risk to watch: no major red flags stand out.
What we think it's worth
$211.58
-19% below today's price
Trend strength
85/100
Strong and rising

The investment decision

3 Buy3 Hold0 Wait1 No data
Greenwald
Value
Hold
60 / 100
Druckenmiller
Momentum
Buy
95 / 100
Laffont
Growth
Buy
75 / 100
Ackman
Catalyst
Hold
50 / 100
Dalio
Macro
Hold
53 / 100
Griffin
Risk
Buy
77 / 100
Cohen
Vs. peers
No data
not reporting
What to doWait
Trading above estimated fair value. Wait for a pullback toward $211.58 before considering an entry.
• What would change this: a pullback toward $211.58, which would put a margin back between the price you pay and what we think it is worth.

Where the price sits

2 independent answers to "what is this worth", on one scale.
$97.83Floor price
$260.12Today
$211.58Our value
See the full analysis ↓
Same page, keep scrolling. Valuation, the business, the risks, and what each investor said.
AMZN full analysis What it's worth The business What could go wrong The committee
01

What it's worth

Every method, one scale, $0 to $300

Amazon.com, Inc. appears 19% overvalued, patience recommended.

2 ways of valuing Amazon.com land between $97.83 and $211.58. Our number, $211.58, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$211.58-19% vs price
Floor priceWorth of today's profits if growth stopped
$97.83-62%
$0$75$150$225$300
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what Amazon.com would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 62% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02

The business

What the quality readings say
On quality, Amazon.com reads strongest through the momentum lens at 95 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital29.8%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
Growth plus margin17
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score75
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.45×
0×moves 45% more than the market2×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03

What could go wrong

The case against buying today
The risk here is the multiple, not the balance sheet. Most of what you pay is growth that has not happened yet, and that is the part a re-rating takes first.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$184.47-29.1%
TodayMarket price
$260.12 
Our valuePrimary method
$211.58-18.7%
Same $0 to $300 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 29% drawdown in a bad tape to earn -19% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
You are paying for growth62% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
You are paying above our estimateThe price sits 19% above what we think the business is worth.
Balance sheet is not the problemDebt to equity of 0xx. Solvency is not a live risk in any scenario here.
04

The committee

3 buy · 3 hold · 0 wait · 1 no data
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Buy
The chart confirms the story. Price is above its key averages and the trend is intact.
95
GriffinRisk lens
Buy
Risk-adjusted, this screens well: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 1.45x the market.
77
LaffontGrowth lens
Buy
Growth and margin together read 17, which is the level where this lens treats a business as exceptional.
75
GreenwaldValue lens
Hold
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $97.83 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
60
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
53
AckmanCatalyst lens
Hold
No clear near-term event to force a re-rating. This lens needs a catalyst it can name.
50
CohenVs. peers lens
No data
This lens could not be scored on the data available right now.
n/a
EA Pre-Revenue / Early Stage
Electronic Arts Inc. / Technology / $52.92B market value
Price today
$209.70
Partial data. 1 of 7 lenses could not be scored, and no independent valuation method resolved. Our value rests on a single internal estimate with nothing independent to cross-check it.
No earnings methods. The floor price and the growth-adjusted earnings method both need positive profits, so neither is shown. The valuation range below runs on the methods that do not depend on earnings.
Electronic Arts does not earn a profit yet, so we cannot value it the way we value the rest.
Without positive profits, the earnings-based methods cannot run at all. What follows is only what the other lenses can see: the trend, the balance sheet, and how the market prices comparable companies. Treat every number on this page as thinner evidence than it would be for a profitable company.
What we think it's worth
$205.91
No independent method to cross-check this
Trend strength
50/100
Mixed

The investment decision

0 Buy5 Hold1 Wait1 No data
Greenwald
Value
Wait
30 / 100
Druckenmiller
Momentum
Hold
50 / 100
Laffont
Growth
Hold
50 / 100
Ackman
Catalyst
Hold
50 / 100
Dalio
Macro
Hold
50 / 100
Griffin
Risk
Hold
68 / 100
Cohen
Vs. peers
No data
not reporting
What to doNot a candidate
No buy language is generated for a company without earnings. Watch for the first profitable quarter, then the full framework applies.
• What would change this: the first quarter of positive operating profit, which is what the earnings-based methods need before they can run at all.

Where the price sits

What the price looks like against the little we could compute.
$209.70Today
$205.91Our value
See the full analysis ↓
Same page, keep scrolling. Valuation, the business, the risks, and what each investor said.
EA full analysis What it's worth The business What could go wrong The committee
01

What it's worth

Every method, one scale, $0 to $250

Electronic Arts Inc. is near fair value with D-grade earnings.

Only one method resolved for Electronic Arts, so this section is a partial picture: $205.91 against a price of $209.70.
Our fair valueNo earnings methods available
$205.91-2% vs price
$0$62$125$188$250
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. With no earnings-based floor available, there is no reading here of how much of the price is growth.
02

The business

What the quality readings say
On quality, Electronic Arts reads strongest through the risk lens at 68 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Growth plus margin0
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score50
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market0.64×
0×moves 36% less than the market2×
D
Earnings quality
Accounting profit and cash generation are drifting apart.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03

What could go wrong

The case against buying today
The risk here is mostly about price and timing, not about whether the business survives.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$182.82-12.8%
TodayMarket price
$209.70 
Our valuePrimary method
$205.91-1.8%
Same $0 to $250 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 13% drawdown in a bad tape to earn -2% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
Reported profit is not backed by cashEarnings quality grades D. Accounting profit and cash generation are drifting apart, which usually shows up in a later guidance cut.
There are no profits to valueEvery earnings-based method is unavailable, so the range below is thinner than it would be for a profitable company.
Little margin for error on priceAt -2%, the stock is close to fair. There is no discount absorbing a bad quarter.
04

The committee

0 buy · 5 hold · 1 wait · 1 no data
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 0.64x the market.
68
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Hold
The chart is mixed: no trend to lean on, and none to fight either.
50
LaffontGrowth lens
Hold
Growth and margin together read 0, respectable but not rare.
50
AckmanCatalyst lens
Hold
No clear near-term event to force a re-rating. This lens needs a catalyst it can name.
50
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
50
GreenwaldValue lens
Wait
Without positive, steady profits this lens has nothing to anchor on.
30
CohenVs. peers lens
No data
This lens could not be scored on the data available right now.
n/a