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Macro Catalysts 13F My reports Glossary
Analyze a stock
In this report
GRABWait$4.08+16%HIMSWatch$35.01+10%
Each name is analysed on its own. Dash does not size positions or build baskets.
GRAB High Growth
Grab Holdings Limited / Technology / $14.36B market value
Price today
$3.51
A good business at a discount, but the stock is falling. The committee says wait.
Grab Holdings Limited appears about 16% undervalued based on our multi-framework valuation. Earnings quality is rated B, solid with decent cash flow backing. 2 out of 7 investment frameworks support buying, with potential upside of +120% in a best-case scenario. The main risk to watch: the stock is below its long-term trend line.
What we think it's worth
$4.08
+16% above today's price
Trend strength
0/100
Weak and falling

The investment decision

1 Buy4 Hold2 Wait
Greenwald
Value
Hold
56 / 100
Druckenmiller
Momentum
Wait
26 / 100
Laffont
Growth
Hold
70 / 100
Ackman
Catalyst
Buy
77 / 100
Dalio
Macro
Hold
50 / 100
Griffin
Risk
Hold
57 / 100
Cohen
Vs. peers
Wait
36 / 100
What to doWait
Fundamentals look constructive, but the chart is weak. Wait for trend confirmation, a move back above the 200-day average, before entering. Waiting costs you about 16% of headroom; being early into a falling stock has cost far more.
• What would change this: the price closing back above its 200-day average of $4.16, which would move the trend score off 0. If that happens and the value case is still in place, this becomes a buy.

Where the price sits

6 independent answers to "what is this worth", on one scale.
$1.46Floor price
$5.86Wall Street
$3.51Today
$4.08Our value
See the full analysis ↓
Same page, keep scrolling. Valuation, the business, the risks, and what each investor said.
GRAB full analysis What it's worth The business What could go wrong The committee
01

What it's worth

Every method, one scale, $0 to $8

Grab Holdings Limited looks 16% undervalued with B-grade earnings.

6 ways of valuing Grab Holdings land between $1.33 and $5.86. Our number, $4.08, comes from Growth-adjusted earnings, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueGrowth-adjusted earnings, primary
$4.08+16% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$5.86+67%
Peers, cash profitshow similar companies are priced
$1.33-62%
Peers, free cash flowcash left after running the business
$4.16+19%
Peers, revenuepriced on sales, not profit
$3.42-3%
Floor priceWorth of today's profits if growth stopped
$1.46-58%
$0$2$4$6$8
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what Grab Holdings would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 58% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02

The business

What the quality readings say
On quality, Grab Holdings reads strongest through the catalyst lens at 77 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital6.8%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
Growth plus margin24
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score70
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market0.89×
0×moves 11% less than the market2×
B
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash. Not perfect, not a concern.
What has to go right. Wall Street's $5.86 assumes the current growth rate keeps compounding. Every dollar of the 58% of the price that sits above the floor rests on that continuing. Nothing in the readings above says it will not; they say whether the company is capable of it.
03

What could go wrong

The case against buying today
The risk here is the multiple, not the balance sheet. Most of what you pay is growth that has not happened yet, and that is the part a re-rating takes first.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$1.93-45.0%
TodayMarket price
$3.51 
Our valuePrimary method
$4.08+16.2%
Same $0 to $8 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +16% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
The trend is against youTrend strength reads 0 out of 100. Price is under its key moving averages, and the momentum lens is the one that will not buy weakness.
You are paying for growth58% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
Balance sheet is not the problemDebt to equity of 0xx. Solvency is not a live risk in any scenario here.
04

The committee

1 buy · 4 hold · 2 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
AckmanCatalyst lens
Buy
There is an identifiable driver here rather than a hope for a re-rating, which is what this lens wants to see.
77
LaffontGrowth lens
Hold
Growth and margin together read 24, respectable but not rare.
70
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 0.89x the market.
57
GreenwaldValue lens
Hold
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $1.46 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
56
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
50
CohenVs. peers lens
Wait
Against comparable companies the multiples here are rich.
36
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Wait
The chart disagrees with the story. Price is below its key averages, and this lens does not buy weakness, however good the company is.
26
HIMS High Growth
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. / Healthcare / $7.43B market value
Price today
$31.86
Partial data. Only one independent valuation method resolved. Read the numbers below as a partial picture, not a full one.
A good business at a fair price, and the chart agrees. The committee says watch and wait.
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. appears about 10% undervalued based on our multi-framework valuation. Earnings quality is rated A, very reliable and well-supported by cash flow. 3 out of 7 investment frameworks support buying, with potential upside of +80% in a best-case scenario. The main risk to watch: it's more volatile than the average stock.
What we think it's worth
$35.01
+10% above today's price
Trend strength
100/100
Strong and rising

The investment decision

3 Buy0 Hold4 Wait
Greenwald
Value
Wait
38 / 100
Druckenmiller
Momentum
Buy
92 / 100
Laffont
Growth
Buy
90 / 100
Ackman
Catalyst
Wait
32 / 100
Dalio
Macro
Buy
78 / 100
Griffin
Risk
Wait
0 / 100
Cohen
Vs. peers
Wait
42 / 100
What to doWatch
Watch for a pullback below $31.51 to enter.
• What would change this: either a lower price toward $35.01 or a stronger trend. One of the two has to give before this is a buy.

Where the price sits

2 independent answers to "what is this worth", on one scale.
$30.85Wall Street
$31.86Today
$35.01Our value
See the full analysis ↓
Same page, keep scrolling. Valuation, the business, the risks, and what each investor said.
HIMS full analysis What it's worth The business What could go wrong The committee
01

What it's worth

Every method, one scale, $0 to $40

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. has modest 10% upside with A-grade earnings.

2 ways of valuing Hims & Hers Health land between $30.85 and $35.01. Our number, $35.01, comes from Growth-adjusted earnings, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueGrowth-adjusted earnings, primary
$35.01+10% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$30.85-3%
$0$10$20$30$40
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. With no earnings-based floor available, there is no reading here of how much of the price is growth.
02

The business

What the quality readings say
On quality, Hims & Hers Health reads strongest through the momentum lens at 92 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital-32.0%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
Growth plus margin67
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score90
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load2.44×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market2.42×
0×moves 142% more than the market2×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. The readings above say what the business is capable of, not what the market will pay for it. Hold them against the price in section 01.
03

What could go wrong

The case against buying today
The risk here is the balance sheet as much as the multiple. Leverage this size limits how much a bad year can be absorbed.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$17.52-45.0%
TodayMarket price
$31.86 
Our valuePrimary method
$35.01+9.9%
Same $0 to $40 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +10% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
The balance sheet is leveredDebt to equity of 2.44x. Leverage that size turns a bad year into a solvency question.
Little margin for error on priceAt +10%, the stock is close to fair. There is no discount absorbing a bad quarter.
It moves more than the marketVolatility of 2.42x the market. Position sizing matters more here than the entry price.
Short sellers are positioned against it32% of the float is sold short.
04

The committee

3 buy · 0 hold · 4 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They mostly agree, and not in your favour: the objections are spread across the business, the price and the trend rather than sitting in one lens.
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Buy
The chart confirms the story. Price is above its key averages and the trend is intact.
92
LaffontGrowth lens
Buy
Growth and margin together read 67, which is the level where this lens treats a business as exceptional.
90
DalioMacro lens
Buy
Liquidity and credit conditions are supportive of taking risk here.
78
CohenVs. peers lens
Wait
Against comparable companies the multiples here are rich.
42
GreenwaldValue lens
Wait
Without positive, steady profits this lens has nothing to anchor on.
38
AckmanCatalyst lens
Wait
No clear near-term event to force a re-rating. This lens needs a catalyst it can name.
32
GriffinRisk lens
Wait
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 2.44x and volatility of 2.42x the market.
0