01
What it's worth
Every method, one scale, $0 to $2,000
Amazon.com, Inc. has modest 5% upside with A-grade earnings.
6 ways of valuing Amazon.com land between $58.28 and $1,467. Our number, $276.15, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$276.15+5% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$326.84+24%
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what Amazon.com would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 78% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02
The business
What the quality readings say
On quality, Amazon.com reads strongest through the momentum lens at 100 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital17.4%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score75
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.45×
A
Earnings quality
Reported profit is backed by real cash.
What has to go right. Wall Street's $326.84 assumes the current growth rate keeps compounding. Every dollar of the 78% of the price that sits above the floor rests on that continuing. Nothing in the readings above says it will not; they say whether the company is capable of it.
03
What could go wrong
The case against buying today
The risk here is the multiple, not the balance sheet. Most of what you pay is growth that has not happened yet, and that is the part a re-rating takes first.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$144.58-45.0%
Our valuePrimary method
$276.15+5.0%
Same $0 to $2,000 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn +5% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
You are paying for growth78% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
Little margin for error on priceAt +5%, the stock is close to fair. There is no discount absorbing a bad quarter.
Balance sheet is not the problemDebt to equity of 0xx. Solvency is not a live risk in any scenario here.
04
The committee
3 buy · 4 hold · 0 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Buy
The chart confirms the story. Price is above its key averages and the trend is intact.
100
CohenVs. peers lens
Buy
Against comparable companies this is not expensive on the multiples that matter for a business like this.
80
LaffontGrowth lens
Buy
Growth and margin together read 17, which is the level where this lens treats a business as exceptional.
75
AckmanCatalyst lens
Hold
There is an identifiable driver here rather than a hope for a re-rating, which is what this lens wants to see.
70
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Liquidity and credit conditions are supportive of taking risk here.
70
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 1.45x the market.
64
GreenwaldValue lens
Hold
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $58.28 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
60