01
What it's worth
Every method, one scale, $0 to $500
Tesla, Inc. appears 27% overvalued, patience recommended.
6 ways of valuing Tesla land between $13.39 and $390.09. Our number, $266.24, comes from earnings power plus franchise value, the right primary method for a company of this profile.
Our fair valueEarnings power plus franchise, primary
$266.24-27% vs price
Wall Street consensusAverage analyst target
$390.09+8%
How to read this. Each bar runs from that method's answer to today's price, so the length of the bar is the disagreement. The floor price is not a target and not a prediction of a crash: it is what Tesla would be worth if it stopped growing tomorrow. The gap between the floor and today's price, 96% of what you pay, is the growth you are paying for, and it is the part that disappears fastest if growth slows.
02
The business
What the quality readings say
On quality, Tesla reads strongest through the catalyst lens at 82 out of 100. This is the half of the report that says judge the business on its own merits, separately from what the price is doing.
Return on invested capital7.7%
0%How much profit each dollar invested returns30%
0revenue growth + profit margin, above 40 is strong80
Growth score65
0How this lens rates the growth100
Debt load0x×
0×Debt vs equity, low is safer2×
Volatility vs the market1.83×
C
Earnings quality
Average. Worth watching how profit converts to cash.
What has to go right. Wall Street's $390.09 assumes the current growth rate keeps compounding. Every dollar of the 96% of the price that sits above the floor rests on that continuing. Nothing in the readings above says it will not; they say whether the company is capable of it.
03
What could go wrong
The case against buying today
The risk here is the multiple, not the balance sheet. Most of what you pay is growth that has not happened yet, and that is the part a re-rating takes first.
Downside caseVolatility-based
$199.57-45.0%
Our valuePrimary method
$266.24-26.6%
Same $0 to $500 scale as section 01
Read the asymmetry. You are risking a 45% drawdown in a bad tape to earn -27% of headroom to our value. That ratio, not the quality of the company, is what the call above is about.
Ranked risks
The trend is against youTrend strength reads 5 out of 100. Price is under its key moving averages, and the momentum lens is the one that will not buy weakness.
You are paying for growth96% of today's price is the value of growth that has not happened yet. A slowdown removes that part first.
You are paying above our estimateThe price sits 27% above what we think the business is worth.
It moves more than the marketVolatility of 1.83x the market. Position sizing matters more here than the entry price.
04
The committee
1 buy · 4 hold · 2 wait
Seven investing styles, run over the same numbers. They are meant to disagree, and where they disagree is where the decision lives.
AckmanCatalyst lens
Buy
There is an identifiable driver here rather than a hope for a re-rating, which is what this lens wants to see.
82
LaffontGrowth lens
Hold
Growth and margin together read 25, respectable but not rare.
65
GreenwaldValue lens
Hold
Quality is not the question, price is. The floor price of $13.39 sits well below today, so this lens will not call it cheap.
52
GriffinRisk lens
Hold
The risk readings are the constraint: debt to equity of 0xx and volatility of 1.83x the market.
51
DalioMacro lens
Hold
Conditions are neutral: mildly supportive, not a reason to act on their own.
50
DruckenmillerMomentum lens
Wait
The chart disagrees with the story. Price is below its key averages, and this lens does not buy weakness, however good the company is.
38
CohenVs. peers lens
Wait
Against comparable companies the multiples here are rich.
35